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Results for "counterfactuals"

Rational Counterfactuals

arXiv · Apr 8

This paper introduces rational counterfactuals, a method for identifying counterfactuals that maximize the attainment of a desired consequent. The approach aims to identify the antecedent that leads to a specific outcome for rational decision-making. The theory is applied to identify variable values that contribute to peace, such as Allies, Contingency, Distance, Major Power, Capability, Democracy, and Economic Interdependency. Why it matters: The research provides a framework for analyzing and promoting conditions conducive to peace using counterfactual reasoning.

Causal inference for climate change events from satellite image time series using computer vision and deep learning

arXiv · Oct 25

The paper proposes a method for causal inference using satellite image time series to determine the impact of interventions on climate change, focusing on quantifying deforestation due to human causes. The method uses computer vision and deep learning to detect forest tree coverage levels over time and Bayesian structural causal models to estimate counterfactuals. The framework is applied to analyze deforestation levels before and after the hyperinflation event in Brazil in the Amazon rainforest region.

Diffusion-BBO: Diffusion-Based Inverse Modeling for Online Black-Box Optimization

arXiv · Jun 30

This paper introduces Diffusion-BBO, a new online black-box optimization (BBO) framework that uses a conditional diffusion model as an inverse surrogate model. The framework employs an Uncertainty-aware Exploration (UaE) acquisition function to propose scores in the objective space for conditional sampling. The approach is shown theoretically to achieve a near-optimal solution and empirically outperforms existing online BBO baselines across 6 scientific discovery tasks.